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Abstract Submesoscale turbulence in the upper ocean consists of fronts, filaments, and vortices that have horizontal scales on the order of 100 m to 10 km. High-resolution numerical simulations have suggested that submesoscale turbulence is associated with strong vertical motion that could substantially enhance the vertical exchange between the thermocline and mixed layer, which may have an impact on marine ecosystems and climate. Theoretical, numerical, and observational work indicates that submesoscale turbulence is energized primarily by baroclinic instability in the mixed layer, which is most vigorous in winter. This study demonstrates how such mixed layer baroclinic instabilities induce vertical exchange by drawing filaments of thermocline water into the mixed layer. A scaling law is proposed for the dependence of the exchange on environmental parameters. Linear stability analysis and nonlinear simulations indicate that the exchange, quantified by how much thermocline water is entrained into the mixed layer, is proportional to the mixed layer depth, is inversely proportional to the Richardson number of the thermocline, and increases with increasing Richardson number of the mixed layer. The results imply that the tracer exchange between the thermocline and mixed layer is more efficient when the mixed layer is thicker, when the mixed layer stratification is stronger, when the lateral buoyancy gradient is stronger, and when the thermocline stratification is weaker. The scaling suggests vigorous exchange between the permanent thermocline and deep mixed layers in winter, especially in mode water formation regions. Significance StatementThis study examines how instabilities in the surface layer of the ocean bring interior water up from below. This interior–surface exchange can be important for dissolved gases such as carbon dioxide and oxygen as well as nutrients fueling biological growth in the surface ocean. A scaling law is proposed for the dependence of the exchange on environmental parameters. The results of this study imply that the exchange is particularly strong if the well-mixed surface layer is thick, lateral density gradients are strong (such as at fronts), and the stratification below the surface layer is weak. These theoretical findings can be implemented in boundary layer parameterization schemes in global ocean models and improve our understanding of the marine ecosystem and how the ocean mediates climate change.